By Scott Taylor
In a year-end interview with the Canadian Press, Canadian Army Commander, Lt. Gen Joe Paul admitted that his soldiers are feeling squeezed. This is due to a current shortage of personnel coupled with increased demands both abroad and here in Canada.
The Army is not the only branch of the Canadian Armed Forces feeling the pinch in terms of personnel shortages.
With an authorized regular force strength of 67,000, it is estimated that the CAF presently has more than 10,000 positions unfilled.
This is a result of both a failure to recruit and train sufficient numbers, and also a fast-rising rate of attrition. Lt. Gen Paul believes that the Army shrunk by 1200 soldiers last year alone, and he predicts that 2023 will likely see an additional 800 vacancies in the ranks.
Since 2016, Canada’s largest overseas military deployment has been to Latvia. Canada provides approximately 600-700 soldiers and the command structure to a NATO force of roughly 2000 combat soldiers from ten NATO member states.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, Canada slightly boosted the number of Canadian troops based in Latvia.
However, in June, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau signed an agreement to grow the allied force in Latvia to a full brigade.
Lt. Gen Paul is rightly concerned that Canada has little more to offer in terms of a sustained commitment to such a reinforced NATO brigade.
“So how much kit can I afford having pre-positioned in Latvia without impacting too much my training back home, without impacting my capability to do domestic operations”, Paul told CP. “If we were to generate two battle group in Latvia, sustained, we cannot do it,” he added. “The whole thing will break, especially when we need to reconstitute our ranks.”
As for the demands for domestic operations, the CAF -and the Army in particular- have seen a steady increase in responding to natural disasters across Canada over the past two decades.
While the sight of military vehicles and personnel assisting in sandbagging riverbanks during floods or carving up downed trees with chainsaws after a hurricane are excellent public relations gestures, the fact is this is not a responsible use of combat professionals.
Between the demands of sustaining the Battle Group in Latvia, ammunition shortages due to the provision of same to the Ukraine Armed Forces, or simply the lack of available personnel, it has become increasingly difficult for the Canadian Army to conduct large scale military training exercises. When you add to this the unpredictable demands on the Canadian Army to assist civilians in the wake of natural disasters, the professionalism of the individual soldiers is bound to be eroded.
The decision to expand the Latvia based Force to a full brigade was announced by Trudeau back in June, however the war in Ukraine has since taken some very dramatic turns,
Given the fact that the Russian military has suffered such crippling losses and battlefield reversals at the hands of the Ukrainians, it appears it is no longer necessary for NATO to boost troop numbers in Latvia or the other Baltic states.
If Putin had doubted NATO’s resolve to resist Russian’s military aggressions, I think that such skepticism has since been fully disproven.
Ukraine is not a member of the NATO military alliance, yet Canada and other NATO allies have provided Ukraine with training, weaponry, money, and intelligence.
This support has resulted in the crushing defeat of Putin’s military.
No one in their right mind would believe that NATO would not employ even more lethal resistance if Russia were to actually invade a NATO member state such as Latvia.
Given the battlefield losses in armoured vehicles and effective combat soldiers, Russia will not pose a threat to the Baltic States for decades to come. If NATO insists on beefing up the Brigade in Latvia, that increase in personnel should come from the other nine European NATO allies currently contributing soldiers.
Canadian politicians need to heed the warnings from our senior generals.
If indeed the Army is near the breaking point, then we need to give them an operational pause. That is especially true in reducing expectations among the civilian population that every time there is a forest fire or flood the Army will be riding to the rescue.
Wishing everyone a happy and healthy 2023.
