By Scott Taylor
Whenever there is a crisis involving death and destruction one of the first reactions of the media is to describe it as being akin to “a war zone.” A tornado rips through an urban center and we are told that the wreckage looks ‘like a war zone.’ A train derails and bursts into flames and we are told that the blazing debris is ‘like a war zone.’
Now as the global COVID19 pandemic engulfs the planet we are once again being told that this is a ‘war.’ True enough the casualty count continues to mount and our health care services are overextended in the battle to contain the spread of the virus. However the analogy that this is a ‘war’ against COVID19 may set us on a false course for dealing with the impact of the massive economic crisis that is sure to follow this initial health crisis.
Wars by their very nature stimulate economic activity. As armies are mobilized, factories ramp up production in order to equip them with weapons and munitions. Strict controls such as rationing of vital supplies like fuel and food are implemented, and governments impose wage and price controls to prevent rabid inflation.
With the COVID19 crisis we have the exact opposite course of action in that we have strictly enforced idleness for all but essential workers. Across the entire globe we have the unprecedented shut down of the world’s economy.
The Canadian government has already announced a stream of financial assistance packages to drip feed businesses and workers for the duration of the shut down in the hope that they will help jump start the economy when normal life resumes. What was originally announced to be a $1 billion crisis-fund from the federal government was soon increased to $27 billion and within days that number increased to a staggering $200 billion and counting.
As for the length of the work stoppage, that was to have been a 14-day shutdown of schools and non-essential workplaces. Now we have the official cancellation of major events like parades and conferences right through to the end of June.
Even with the current government drip-feed of financial aid to suspended businesses, it is not clear how many small enterprises will survive to be able to reopen their doors once this storm abates.
Another hazard in describing the current crisis as a ‘war’ is that people then have a heightened expectation that the Canadian Armed Forces somehow have a role to play in this crisis. A recent poll conducted by the Conference of Defence Association Institute and IPSOS determined that nine out of ten Canadians expect the CAF to be involved in somehow defending Canada from the COVID19 pandemic.
While there may eventually be some logistics support and security enforcement tasks performed by the CAF, this is not a war: It is a health crisis. Doctors, nurses, paramedics, cleaners, grocery store clerks, gas station attendants and truck drivers are the frontline soldiers in the battle against COVID19. Not our combat troops.
The present prediction is that even with the strict rules in place for self- isolation and physical distancing, some 30-70 per cent of Canadians will contract the COVID19 virus, and of that number a small percentage will die from the disease. Those numbers could translate into tragic proportions in even a best case scenario.
However one thing is for sure and that is that when the second shoe drops – the economic crunch which this crisis has caused-every single Canadian will feel the impact on some level.
We need to be planning now for how best to restart the economy even as we struggle to flatten the curve and curb the spread of this deadly contagion.
