Photo: The Canadian Forces Snowbirds (431 Air Demonstration Squadron) perform over 19 Wing Comox, British Columbia on April 11, 2017. Photo: Sgt Halina Folfas, 19 Wing Imaging Services CX03-2017-0135-54
By Scott Taylor
Last week CTV News broke the story that the RCAF was putting a five year pause on operations for the famed 431 'Snowbirds' Air Demonstration squadron.
Canadians from coast to coast are well familiar with the aerobatic aerial exploits of this squadron of red and white Tutor jet aircraft, which have been dazzling airshow crowds since June 1971.
Thus any announcement of a pause in operations or a possible permanent cancellation of the RCAF Snowbirds would be unpopular with a Canadian citizenry who have come to view this demonstration squadron as a symbolic Canadian icon.
The source of the CTV story was essentially Fraser Tolmie who is the Conservative MP for Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan, which of course is the home base for the Snowbirds.
"Up front, the Snowbirds are being cancelled." Tolmie told CTV. "We've been hearing from locals and air show organizers across North America that this is the end and they won't be continuing in 2027. What I've heard is they're going to pause the Snowbirds for five years."
It seems that the genesis for Tolmie's assertion was the fact that to date no airshow bookings are being made for the Snowbird squadron beyond the end of the 2026 season. No formal statement on the future of this popular air demonstration squadron was issued at the time.
However David McGuinty, the Minister of National Defence did announce that he will be at CFB Moose Jaw on 19 May and at that point he will clarify the future of the Snowbirds. As for options open to McGuinty, the status quo is not one of them. The CT-114 Tutor jets that the Snowbirds currently fly were first introduced to RCAF service in the 1960's.
In 2003 a DND study recommended that a replacement program should be undertaken 'immediately' in order to have new aircraft in service by 2010. That report stated "with each passing year, the technical, safety and financial risk associated with extending the Tutor into its fifth decade and beyond, will escalate".
Of course that project never happened.
Another DND review in 2008 recommended that upgrades be made to the CT-114 Tutor fleet to keep them flying until 2020. The rationale was that there would not be public support for purchasing a new fleet of aircraft.
The Harper Conservatives who were in power at the time, figured it was easier to just add some modern avionics to the old airframes than to try to justify spending up to $1 billion on new jets whose sole purpose is an airshow act.
By 2015 yet another report entitled "CT-114 Life Extension Beyond 2020" outlined planned upgrades to keep the old planes airworthy until 2030. For those doing the math, that puts the CT-114 fleet at 20 years past its original 'best-before' date.
For those few Canadians who have yet to witness a Snowbird airshow performance, the most accurate description would simply be 'breathtaking'. The tight formation flying and aerial acrobatics are not something that lends itself well to aircraft in their sixth decade of service.
It is a dangerous undertaking as evidenced by the fact that to date the Snowbirds have suffered 8 pilot and two passenger fatalities. A total of 15 CT-114 Tutors have crashed during the Snowbirds performances since 1978 with a handful more being damaged while performing.
For the record, in response to the Snowbirds' future, MND McGuinty said in a statement to Skies magazine, “Canadians can rest assured that they will be able to enjoy the iconic Snowbird formation for generations to come.”
If he is going to keep that promise, he will need to announce a replacement aircraft for the worn out CT-114 fleet. The problem of aged out planes is not the only challenge for the future of the Snowbirds.
It is widely known that for years the RCAF has been coping with a chronic shortage of trained pilots and maintenance personnel. The Snowbirds show team flies 11 CT-114 Tutors, including two solo aircraft and two spares for a total of 13. An additional 13 aircraft are rotated through maintenance.
In total there are 80 RCAF personnel assigned to the Demonstration Squadron, of which 24 personnel comprise the travelling component.
That my friends is a lot of highly skilled people being used as an air show act at a time when the RCAF cannot meet NORAD and NATO operational commitments.
While certainly a career perk for those assigned to the Snowbirds, it is difficult to justify an investment estimated now to be around $2 billion to acquire new show planes for an RCAF tasked with defending our airspace.
Other air force's utilize actual combat aircraft such as the F-16 Falcon for their demonstration squadrons. The little red and white CT-114 training planes are without any practical combat capability.
Which brings us back to the RCAF's premise that the aerobatic Snowbirds are actually a positive recruiting tool. I think they may entice young audience members to embrace aviation in general, but you would get more re-action to another Top Gun sequel if you are looking to recruit pilots who wish to be part of a modern air force.
One long shot option is that MND McGuinty will announce that Canada will acquire a fleet of Swedish SAAB Gripen fighter jets as part of a mixed fleet alongside the F-35's already ordered from Lockheed Martin.
The kicker being that the future Snowbirds will be flying Gripens in formation and entertaining Canadians "for generations to come."
If so, you heard it here first.
