By Scott Taylor
We are now well into the third month of Russia’s war in Ukraine and it appears that there is little hope of the conflict ending anytime soon.
The Ukrainian military has proven itself to be better trained, equipped and motivated than the surprisingly inept Russian armed forces.
On land, at sea and in the air, Ukraine has put to good use the NATO- supplied sophisticated weaponry and proven the effectiveness of the eight years of martial mentoring supplied by NATO trainers – including Canadian soldiers.
However, now that Putin’s ‘Special Military Operation’ in Ukraine has bogged down into a bloody stalemate, a new question has emerged - how can Russia extricate their forces and somehow still save face?
In Canada the initial mood of collective sympathy for what we thought was a doomed Ukrainian population has morphed into that of joyous celebration of their resolve, defiance and battlefield success.
Canadians with absolutely no Ukrainian heritage adorn their houses or vehicles with the now omnipresent yellow and blue national colours of Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would poll far higher in terms of approval among Canadians than any of our own political leaders.
Given the dire situation following Russia’s invasion, nobody in Canada blinked, let alone objected when it was announced we would be giving Ukraine an additional $500 million in military aid.
On the flip side, Canada has been one of the most vocal international voices calling for punitive sanctions against Putin and his regime. We gloat over other nations seizing the multi-million dollar yachts of Russian oligarchs with political ties to Putin.
In the early days of the conflict, we heard reports of how the Russian ruble was plummeting in value, and the speculation was that once the financial impact hit home, the Russian people would seek to end Putin’s foray into Ukraine.
While we all want to believe that is the case, the reality is that Russia is actually benefitting from the war financially.
The reason for this is Europe’s dependency on Russian oil and gas exports.
Prior to the threat of war in Ukraine, a barrel of oil was trading at roughly $70 (USD).When Putin massed his troops along the Ukraine border, that price per barrel rose to nearly $100 (USD). Since the actual invasion began on February 24th, the price of oil has steadily climbed to over $110 (USD) a barrel.
This will not come as news to anyone who owns a motor vehicle in Canada.
However, what might come as a bit of a shock to those observing all the international snubbing of Russia, is the fact that every day Europe is still paying Putin’s regime over $850 million (USD) for oil and gas.
What is even crazier is that some of those European countries, which so defiantly chastise Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, are paying for that oil and gas in Russian rubles which they purchase with Euros through Swiss banks.
As a result of this arrangement, the Russian ruble is now trading at levels higher than at any time prior to the COVID pandemic which began in March 2020.
While NATO countries are providing Ukraine with billions of dollars’ worth of high-tech weaponry to fight off Russia, many of those same NATO member states are among those giving Putin $850 million (USD) a day and bolstering his currency at the same time, thus allowing him the ability to afford his ongoing war in Ukraine.
There are plans for Europe to wean themselves off Russian oil and gas imports, but even the most optimistic timeline to secure alternate sources of supply would be at least six months from now.
A sudden shut down of Russian oil and gas would cause a recession throughout Western Europe.
If the west is serious about bringing Putin’s war machine to a halt, we need to bite the bullet and stop purchasing Russian oil and gas.
Governments could do this through introducing strict policies to drastically reduce consumption. During World War II gasoline was rationed as everyone understood the necessity of prioritizing the war effort.
The banning of all non-essential travel and work from home incentives should be easy enough to enforce in a world just starting to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Canada did announce a ban on Russian oil at the beginning of the conflict, but such purchases were negligible, at best. However, by Canadians cutting back on consumption, we could increase exports to Europe to help lessen their shortfall.
If people understood that these measures were to deprive Putin of his war funding, they could feel real pride in their support for the brave Ukrainians.
Flying a blue and yellow flag won’t stop Russian tanks. Parking your car and cycling to work will be good for the environment and will hit Putin where it hurts. Win. Win.
