Photo credit: Tech. Sgt. Jack Sanders
Last week, Minister of National Defence Anita Anand announced that Canada would be providing an additional $15.2 million worth of military aid to Ukraine. Anand’s announcement came shortly after the June 26-28, G-7 meeting wherein all member states pledged to continue supporting Ukraine’s war effort for the duration of the conflict.
The simple truth is that no analyst forecast that Russia’s invasion would drag on this long – with still no end in sight.
Many observers, myself included, did not think Russian President Vladimir Putin would actually launch an invasion. I thought that the troop build-up along Ukraine’s border was an elaborate bluff to force negotiated concessions from Ukraine.
I will admit that I was proven wrong when Russian troops actually crossed the border. However, no pundit predicted that in the David versus Goliath struggle between a diminutive Ukraine and the mighty Russia, that David could prevail.
With Ukraine President Zelenskyy’s pre-invasion approval rating sitting at just 27 per cent both Putin and the U.S. State Department believed that very few Ukrainians would fight for his regime.
In the early hours of the Russian invasion, the U.S. did not urge Zelenskyy to fight to the death, but rather they offered him a safe passage out of Kyiv.
Famously, Zelenskyy replied, “I need ammunition, not a lift.”
However, by this point it was becoming readily apparent that Ukraine’s army was indeed willing to fight and die for their country if not for Zelenskyy’s corrupt regime in Kyiv.
Unsurprisingly Zelenskyy’s approval rating soon soared due to his daily televised addresses wherein he embodied brave defiance.
As for the ‘ammunition’ he requested, the U.S., Canada and several European countries did indeed heed the call.
As sophisticated modern weaponry cannot be produced overnight, this meant that these donor nations had to deplete their own war stocks and arsenals.
Canada provided numerous 84mm Carl Gustav anti-tank systems, four M-777 155mm howitzers and 39 Light Armoured Vehicles.
As part of our announced $500 million commitment to the Ukraine defence effort, Canada also purchased some 20,000 rounds of 155mm artillery shells at a cost of $98 million.
This sounds like a substantial donation until one realizes that in the current conflict, Ukraine is firing nearly 6,000 rounds of artillery every day. It is estimated that the Russians fire up to ten times that volume.
The fact is that Canada’s armoury has been practically depleted.
There are no more weapons or munitions for us to send which explains why Anand’s recent pledge of support was for winter clothing.
Included in Canada’s $15.2 million donation is some 400,000 items of cold weather military kit, which include; jackets, pants, boots, gloves and parkas.
A further 100,000 items of cold weather clothing are to be drawn from the existing Canadian Armed Forces inventory. Given that the entire CAF is comprised of about 60,000 regular force members (estimated to be 10 per cent below authorized strength) and of that number less than 20,000 are in the army, taking 100,000 cold weather-clothing items out of the inventory is bound to create a shortage for the foreseeable future.
With munitions stocks already drained and the priority being to get newly purchased shells to Ukraine as fast as possible, one has to surmise that there is a moratorium on live fire combat exercises for the purpose of training Canadian soldiers.
Add to this the frequent training cycle interruptions as CAF combat troops are deployed in aid-to-the-civil-power operations such as the recent clean up from Hurricane Fiona’s devastation of the Maritimes.
If it has not occurred already it will only be a matter of time before the shortages of weapons, uniforms and training seriously erodes the combat proficiency of our Army.
Recruitment and retention are already a serious concern for the CAF, and I daresay watching the Defence Minister repeatedly handing over Canadian equipment to Ukraine will have a serious impact on morale.
If professional hockey players were told to hand over their skates, sticks and pads to another team because they were already playing in the “big game,” they would rightfully realize that this donation would preclude them from ever participating.
Add to this the scenario that they are sent out to chainsaw downed trees rather than scrimmage on the ice, and you will have them questioning what exactly still makes them hockey players.
That might actually explain why the CAF’s morale is low and retention and recruitment are fast reaching crisis levels.
