By Jamie Baillie
For the first time in our country’s history, we face the very real prospect that we will be alone in the world, without strategic allies to share in our mutual defence. This will be a new and unsettling feeling for Canadians. Since Confederation, we have been a partner in the strongest defensive alliances in the world: the British Empire, NORAD/the USA, and NATO. The integrity of our national borders, including the Canadian North, has been protected and unquestioned from 1867 to 2025. That is about to change.
At recent Policy Insight Forum meetings at NATO headquarters and the European Commission offices in Brussels, I observed this shift firsthand. Two stark realities emerged: NATO and the EU are seriously preparing for a possible US withdrawal from NATO; and Canada is not assured a spot in a newly constituted Europe-only NATO. Far from it.
NATO membership is centred on the famous Article 5 commitment that “an attack on one is an attack on all” and that every member will come to the defence of the attacked nation, with armed force if necessary. We can not expect Europe to provide this kind of defence commitment to Canada.
Canada is sandwiched between Russia and the United States. The threat from Russia is real and obvious. Now we also face a new kind of threat from US President Donald Trump. He has made it clear that he does not consider Canada to be a “real country.” He calls our border “fake” and openly mocks our military capabilities. He has also called on Russia to “do whatever they want” with NATO countries that fall below the NATO 2% of GDP spending commitment. Canada is one of those countries.
As the western world reorders, Canada can no longer take the deterrent provided by NATO membership, or our continental defence partnership with the United States, for granted. We will be a strategic orphan. To survive intact, we will need a plan to take 100% responsibility for our own defence, security, and border integrity. That work begins now.
We are currently in the midst of a national election campaign unlike any we have seen before. The issues that seemed so urgent a few months ago: carbon tax, housing, cost of living, as important as they are, have faded into the background. Instead, we face a real existential threat to our national sovereignty and our ongoing existence as an independent nation
Political pundits say the big issue in this election is: Who can stand up to Trump? This oversimplifies our national dilemma. The real question we must answer is much bigger: Can Canada defend itself? And who has the best plan to assert our sovereignty and defend our country from all threats around the world?
As a country, we have proven our ability to stand up to aggression and defend Canadian values around the world. Now we must tap that same energy, drive, and investment to become a strong self-defending country on our own soil. We must learn to ensure the borders and sovereignty of the second largest country in the world. We may be responding to new external threats, but we are also taking the essential next steps in the maturation and development of Canada. This is the challenge of our generation. Together we have built a great country with a distinct culture and shared history. It is worth defending, all of it, and we must prepare to do it on our own.
Your kids and future generations of Canadians will thank you for getting this right.
Hon. Jamie Baillie, FCA is the Managing Director Atlantic for the Samuel Group of Companies, and an Industry Liaison for the non-profit Policy Insights Forum.
