The Victoria-class submarines service life comes to an end between 2034 through 2040, and Canada is intent on avoiding a capability gap in that time period. (Canadian Forces photo)
By Tim Ryan and David Pugliese
Prime Minister Mark Carney has repeatedly brought up the state of Canada’s submarine fleet during his speeches about the need to reinvest in the Canadian Forces.
“Only one of our four submarines is seaworthy,” Carney has pointed out on a number of occasions in recent months. He has used that situation to point out the need for replacement boats and his promise to purchase up to 12 conventional-powered new submarines to rectify the current situation.
The submarines will likely be built in a foreign country but it is expected that Canadian firms will play a significant role in the acquisition, and in particular, the long-term maintenance of such boats.
Carney’s submarine procurement promise will be one of the most high profile examples of the Liberal government’s major rearmament program for Canada. The acquisition will also be a test of Carney’s defence policy – Canadians will be watching closely on the speed of the acquisition but also on the benefits that will come to Canadian industry.
Canada currently operates four used Victoria-class submarines bought second hand from the United Kingdom. Those were delivered between 2000 and 2004.
The Victoria-class submarines service life comes to an end between 2034 through 2040, and Canada’s intent on avoiding a capability gap in that time period.
So what is the latest? As we know, Public Services and Procurement Canada, in partnership with the Royal Canadian Navy, the Department of National Defence and Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada (ISED), has commenced a process to acquire up to 12 submarines.
To date, PSPC issued a Request for Information in Sept 2024 to gain insight on the construction, delivery timelines, and operational capabilities of potential suppliers of a new fleet of submarines for Canada. Concurrently, Canada engaged with other governments and militaries to exchange lessons learned and to gain insights into their respective submarine acquisition, infrastructure, and sustainment programs.
Canadian defence officials have already met with officials from South Korea, Spain, France and Sweden about conventional-powered subs. Norway and Germany have also pitched Canada about a program for such submarines. Japan has decided not to take part in the procurement.
The RFI closed on February 28, 2025, according to PSPC spokesman Jeremy Link. “The engagement with other governments and militaries, as well as the 25 RFI responses received from Canadian and international industry, including 7 from international submarine builders, provided the Government of Canada with valuable insights into compliance with the Royal Canadian Navy’s high-level mandatory requirements,” Link told Esprit de Corps. “Canada is considering the next steps that will enable a plan to accelerate the strategic acquisition of a new fleet.”
On April 10, 2025 industry officials were briefed by Royal Canadian Navy officers on the basics of the program.
The submarines are to be capable of deploying undetected to a range of 3500 nautical miles and patrol covertly for 21 days, according to the briefing. They are to operate north of 60 degrees for extended periods of time and if necessary under ice.
For weaponry, the new submarines will be armed with heavy weight torpedoes, anti-ship cruise missiles and precision strike capabilities.
The first of the class will be delivered in 2035 with initial operating capability by 2037, according to the briefing.
It is interesting to note some of the changes made between that April 2025 briefing and the September 2024 information provided by the Canadian government to industry officials. The patrol period at that point was 21 days but at that time the range was 7,000 nautical miles with a minimum of 21 days of continuous dived operations.
The boats would need to operate under the ice in the Arctic but only for limited periods of time.
The briefings to industry at that time stipulated that the subs be capable of no less than 60 days of self-sustained operations. On board communication systems must be compatible with the U.S. military.
No details have been released about the budget for the project, but former naval officers who have examined the request for information told Esprit de Corps that the cost of the program will be in the $100 billion range.
The documents presented to industry requested information on the production cost for acquiring eight or 12 submarines.
Another outstanding question is how will the Royal Canadian Navy train enough submariners to operate the boats?
In the past, the navy has had trouble training enough submariners to crew its current fleet of four boats, let alone eight or 12 new boats.
The response provided to Esprit de Corps by the Royal Canadian Navy to the training question does not exactly spark confidence for the future.
Here is the statement:
“The initial analysis of submarines that have the potential to meet Canadian requirements has indicated a range of crew sizes. Prior to the selection of a submarine and decision on how many will be procured, it is not possible to discern without speculation how many submariners will be needed. The RCN has a plan to recruit, train and retain new submariners. Submarine training is conducted on a continuous basis to meet the demands of new submariners as well as to ensure those currently serving remain current. This requires that the Canadian Submarine Force constantly re-evaluate training requirements to meet the need of current and potential future fleets. We are also working with Defence Research Development Canada to refine our modeling for future personnel needs. New submariners are selected from within the Royal Canadian Navy and to a much lesser extent, the Canadian Armed Forces.”
