Screenshot of CBC video
By Scott Taylor
Last week at the United Nations General Assembly, Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke at the 2-State Solution Conference discussing Palestinian Statehood.
It was not a surprise that Carney would commit Canada to recognizing a 2-State solution, however it was a bit of a shocker that Carney would pledge the use of Canadian troops to help enforce such an agreement.
Acknowledging that the dismantling of HAMAS as a military force, and as a political force would be necessary before the implementation of a formal Palestinian statehood, Carney noted that Middle Eastern and European countries were already in discussions regarding the establishment of an international military force to accomplish this goal. "To which Canada will be a party to if that were to come to pass." stated Carney, adding "to enforce a peace and drive that process".
Now beyond the question of committing Canadian soldiers to a Middle East quagmire that does not have consent from either faction, one has to wonder where exactly Carney thinks he is going to find the troops to deploy.
On Sunday, August 24, Carney also made a pledge to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv that in the wake of a ceasefire agreement with Russia, Canada would be prepared to deploy troops to Ukraine as part of an international security guarantee. Again, where does Carney think he is going to find the troops and weapon systems to deploy as a deterrent to a very tangible Russian aggressor?
At a recent parliamentary Committee Major General Robert Ritchie revealed that the Canadian Army presently has more serviceable modern weaponry and vehicles forward deployed to the NATO mission in Latvia, than it has based on Canadian soil.
The Canadian battle-group at Camp Adazi in Latvia was initially comprised of 850 soldiers deployed in 2017 as part of NATO's operation REASSURANCE. That number of personnel deployed has steadily grown to the current 2,200 and is set to increase to 2,600 by 2026. For Canada's woefully under-strength Army, which consists of three Combat Brigades, supporting the Latvia mission requires a maximum effort.
To think that Canada could additionally mount any meaningful deployment to either Ukraine or Gaza on short notice is reckless in the extreme.
At present the Canadian Armed Forces have a combined regular and reserve force shortfall of roughly 13,000 personnel. This is a crippling number especially when it comes to specialized trades and technicians. The Navy cannot put even half of the fleet to sea, the RCAF cannot fill all of its cockpits and roughly half of the Army's vehicles are off road at any point in time due to a shortage of trained mechanics.
When we talk about the total number of Regular and Reserve force authorized strengths it needs to be noted that in many cases Canada is already leaning heavily on reservists to fill in the gaps in the regular force's ranks. The mission to Latvia would not be possible without full time contracts to reservists to serve a tour.
This of course drains the militia armouries of experienced personnel who would otherwise be part of the training cycle. In other words, even if the recruiting centres enlist the requisite numbers, the training system is unable to process them into trained personnel as long as the CAF remains operationally over-committed. It is tough to plant the next crop if you have already eaten your seed potatoes.
But I digress. For those who wish to wax nostalgic, this was not always the case. In earlier times Canada was actually a respected middle power when it came to our military forces.
In terms of the representation as a percentage of the general population the downward trend has been staggering over the decades. For instance, in 1962 Canada fielded 126,474 regular force personnel while our nation's population stood at 18.6 million. Which means one in 147 Canadians was in uniform.
By 1986, the population had increased to 26.1 million while the regular forces had shrunk to 84,373, representing one service member for every 309 Canadians.
Today, with a population of 40 million, the Canadian regular force stands at an understrength 58,500 which means just one in roughly 684 Canadians is serving the King.
The problem with this lack of visibility and public connection means that the Canadian military will be pressed for recruitment. At present the CAF is almost a tribe with one in five married to a fellow service member and 40% of recruits having one or both parents serving in the CAF.
All of which brings me back to the point of Carney thinking he is going to Canadian deploy troops to Gaza and Ukraine. To attempt either such mission would break the camel's back.
