By Scott Taylor
At the end of this past March, then acting-Prime Minister Mark Carney was battling as the underdog in a federal election campaign to hang on to his job.
At that juncture, newly inaugurated US President Donald Trump was threatening to annex Greenland, invade Panama to secure the canal and to force Canada into becoming the 51st US State through economic pressure.
In response Carney coined the phrase 'Elbow's Up" and unequivocally proclaimed “The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over. It’s clear the US is no longer a reliable partner."
Canada's defence spending, or lack there-of, was a particularly contentious issue for Trump.
In response Carney vowed to drastically increase defence spending immediately with the goal of reaching the NATO alliance's target goal of 2% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) within the current fiscal year. More importantly for Canadian patriots, Carney also vowed to shift away from Canada's near total reliance on the US for weapon platforms and seek instead European partners.
To put some gravitas behind his rhetoric, Carney also immediately ordered the RCAF to review the current project to replace the aging fleet of CF-18 fighter jets with US built F-35 Joint Strike Fighters.
As this lengthy saga began some 21 years ago, and spans a succession of Liberal and Conservative governments, allow me to briefly recap the story. In 2004, under the Paul Martin Liberal government, Canada signed up to be an early partner in the international development of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. At the time of signing only a single experimental aircraft prototype was in existence.
Fast forward to July 2010 when the Conservative government of Stephen Harper announced that Canada would purchase 65 F-35's at a purchase cost of $9 billion. The first aircraft was to be delivered to the RCAF by 2016. However, amidst a barrage of cost increases combined with teething troubles with the F-35's, the Harper conservatives were forced to push the 'reset button' on the entire project.
As a result, the Trudeau Liberals ran on an election promise in 2015 that if elected they would scrap the F-35 purchase once and for all. Trudeau won that election.
The newly elected Liberals faced a backlash from the RCAF leadership and the compromise was to hold a competition to choose a successor to the aging CF-18 fleet.
We learned from whistleblower documents leaked to National Post columnist John Ivison in April 2024, that the RCAF evaluators were intent from the outset to acquire the F-35, and only the F-35.
In March 2022 the Liberals were thus forced to announce they were buying 88 of the F-35's for the purchase cost of $19 billion. The first delivery is not expected until 2026. However, there is a loophole. In December 2022 a deal was signed to purchase the first 16 of an eventual fleet of 88 F-35A's, at a contract value of $7 billion. For those doing the math, that means that the follow on 62 F-35's and roughly $12 billion in the original purchase budget are not under contract yet.
Now that Trump has indeed whacked Canada with a whopping 35 per cent trade tariff, perhaps it is time that Canada makes sure that economic pain is felt on both sides of the border.
India got hit with a 25 per cent trade tariff and they have said they are no longer considering purchasing the F-35 and will instead invest in Russia's SU-57 stealth fighters. Switzerland was handed a 39 per cent trade penalty by Trump, the harshest of any European nation. As a result there are cries from all Swiss political parties to halt a planned purchase of 36 F-35's.
Spain as part of the European Union will face 15 per cent US tariffs and they have chosen as a result to forgo considering a F-35 purchase. They will instead look to replace their F-18 fleet with Eurofighters or the New Generation Fighter from Future Combat Air Systems (FCAS) a joint French and German venture.
Canada for its part could simply cut a deal with Sweden's SAAB to build their Gripen fighters in Canada. That deal was the second place finisher in the RCAF's admittedly rigged competition to replace the CF-18 fleet.
There are downsides to cancelling the remainder of the F-35 purchase, and operating a mixed fighter fleet into the future. However, if SAAB wants to create Canadian aviation jobs and the cost to operate a Gripen fighter is one-fifth the cost of operating a F-35, the savings may balance out.
For the record, for all of those who point to the aviation jobs created by Lockheed Martin in Canada to support the F-35, Trump has already said he wants all of those jobs relocated back to the US when they come due for renewal.
The review that Carney ordered into the CF-18 replacement project is expected to table a final report 'at the end of this summer'.
Unfortunately for those hoping for a true 'Elbow's up' recommendation, the RCAF brain trust remains the same recalcitrant bunch that have insisted on the F-35 and only the F-35 since the outset. Twenty one years ago.
