By Scott Taylor
Last Thursday, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland tabled the joint Liberal and NDP budget. As was widely expected, the federal government has pledged to significantly increase the defence budget by as much as $8 billion.
This sizeable boost will push Canada to the brink of the collective NATO goal of member states spending 2% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defence.
Canada currently spends only about 1.52% of GDP on defence, but in terms of real dollars, our $26 billion budget is the sixth largest expenditure among the 30 NATO members. We are outspent only by the U.S, U.K, Germany, France and Italy.
By virtue of Canada having a relatively large GDP and an enviable absence of pressing defence challenges, the 2% goal is essentially meaningless. For instance, Turkey – with a population of roughly 60 million but with only half our GDP, does indeed meet the 2% of GDP yardstick.
However, in terms of real cash spent annually, Turkey’s budget is only $13 billion. Given the volatile region in which Turkey is situated – neighbouring Iran, Iraq, Syria and the ever-volatile Caucasus – the Turks can actually field a mobilized military upwards of one million troops.
Canada with double the expenditure can manage to mobilize but a tenth of that number. Hence my firm belief that for Canada to establish our defence spending priorities on a meaningless number is simply foolish. Yet that is what the Liberal government has just promised to do.
Partly driving Freeland’s boost in spending is the current public mood. On February 24th, Russian President Vladimir Putin did the unthinkable when he invaded Ukraine.
The pundits beat their war drums and predicted a complete collapse of the Ukrainian forces. In the first days of the Russian offensive, no one speculated on anything but a whirlwind Russian victory. The discussion was not about the fall of Kiev, it was instead focussed on which countries Putin would gobble up next.
People pointed at Moldova and the Baltic States. The Canadian led battle group prepositioned in Latvia was suddenly considered to be on the front line of WW3.
Canadians were rightfully frightened by this development, and the Colonel Blimp brigade took to the airwaves to bemoan Canada’s long neglect of our meagre defence forces.
No one bothered to fact check as we had some retired generals claiming that our Navy ships were tied up dockside for want of fuel, when in fact there were 5 RCN ships deployed on international operations at the time.
Never mind the facts, the Canadian Hawks knew it was time to fuel Canadian fears in order to get the government to open the defence treasure chest.
To their credit these defence cheerleaders succeeded in securing an additional $8 billion.
As they say in the world of grifters, they sold the public on the ‘sizzle’ of an insecure world before it became obvious that the ‘steak’ was not forthcoming.
By that I mean that the initial shock of Russian invasion forces soon gave way when those allegedly vaunted stormtroopers got bogged down by the defiant Ukrainian defenders.
After more than six weeks into the conflict, Russian forces have been halted and in many places they have been driven back with losses that even Putin’s loyal spokesman had to admit were ‘significant.’
The Russians never established air superiority over Ukraine and the propensity of sophisticated anti-armour weapons provided by NATO countries have turned the battlefield into a graveyard of Russian armoured vehicles.
No longer is anyone talking about Putin pushing on to further conquests. Instead people are wondering what sort of face-saving settlement can be reached by negotiators before even more of the Russian army is destroyed.
It remains to be seen just how Putin will be able to retain control of Russia politically given that his façade of being a military strongman has been shattered in Ukraine.
Here in Canada, we now have an additional $8 billion with which to boost our military. In her budget Freeland gave no specifics as to how the Liberal-NDP government plans to spend that money.
The promise is that they will conduct another thorough defence policy review to best ascertain where that money needs to be spent.
Let’s hope that they do not try to build up Russia as a ‘clear and present danger’ to the free world. It will take a long time for Putin’s toothless paper tiger to be restored to full bogeyman status after their debacle in Ukraine.
