By Scott Taylor
In the dumbed down version of the war in Ukraine an awkward truth that is simply overlooked is that many of those fighting alongside the Russian invaders are themselves citizens of Ukraine.
The ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking separatists in the Donbas region still reside in what Canada recognizes as Ukraine’s sovereignty territory which means despite their ethnicity they are still Ukrainian citizens.
When the Maidan protesters overthrew the regime of Viktor Yanukovych in 2014, one of the first acts of the new Ukraine administration was to severely curtail Russian language rights. This in turn prompted the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk to break from the new Kiev regime and declare themselves independent republics.
Just prior to his Feb. 24 invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin formally recognized these two Republics, but to date the rest of the world still considers these territories to be part of Ukraine.
To be clear, no one can justify Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.
Given the disastrous results this far with Ukraine military forces clobbering a surprisingly inept and demoralized Russian war machine, even Putin must question his decision to start this conflict.
However, with all hopes of Russia winning a lightning victory shattered like the columns of destroyed Russian armoured vehicles on the road to Kiev, the war has devolved into a protracted battle of attrition.
It is no longer about tactical movement but it has become a stalemate dominated by the artillery. Sadly, this current situation heavily favours the Russians as they possess a massive arsenal of ammunition.
It has been widely reported by the Ukraine military that they are running out of artillery shells faster than the west can possibly resupply them.
This is a desperate admission to make while your troops are still heavily engaged in combat.
One would think it would only hearten the Russian attackers to know that their enemies are running out of shells. However, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has few options left as he begs the U.S. and European countries for additional ammunition.
Canada made the announcement last month that we will spend $98 million to purchase 20,000 155mm artillery shells from a U.S. manufacturer to ship directly to Ukraine.
While that sounds like a generous donation from Canadian taxpayers to the war effort, it should be realized that at present the Ukraine military are firing 5,000-6,000 artillery shells per day in the Donbas battles.
By contrast, the Russians are firing an estimated 60,000 artillery shells and rockets every day, with no sign of running short any time soon.
In the early stages of the fighting the Ukraine military used up the majority of its stockpiled Soviet era munitions. The NATO calibre artillery now being rushed to Ukraine are not yet on the ground in sufficient numbers to turn the tide.
There is also the issue of having to train the Ukraine gunners on how to operate the more modern and sophisticated NATO heavy artillery pieces.
The Pentagon admits they have “condensed sharply” the training time for these crews, but one fears that a partially trained gunner may prove to be a liability in terms of minimizing collateral damage on the battlefield.
It is also true that artillery shells are neither cheap nor quick to produce. As a result, many European countries who eagerly shipped up to 30 per cent of their own stockpile to Ukraine are now anxious about replacing their own arsenal should this war widen in scope in the near future.
There is no question that Putin failed to achieve his original objectives. It is also true that the once feared Russian war machine turned out to be an incompetent dud.
However, now that Putin has reduced his strategic goal to consolidating control over eastern and southern Ukraine, the courageous Ukraine defenders will be hard pressed to recapture lost ground. This will be extremely challenging if the current imbalance in heavy artillery continues unreversed.
Inside Russia, despite the enormous cost of the war in lives and money, Putin retains an approval rating of over 80 per cent - and climbing. Despite sanctions the Russian rouble remains strong and with elevated oil prices, Russia’s Gazprom is still raking in huge dough from Western European clients.
Even the McDonalds outlets across Russia, which closed in protest of the invasion, have re-opened under a new name. For our part, with the U.S. and NATO defence companies are producing and shipping munitions as fast as they can to Ukraine, the west is artificially stimulating their defence sectors.
The only ones losing in this extended conflict are the Ukrainians themselves. And sadly, there is no end in sight.
