By Scott Taylor
We are now well into the third week of US President Donald Trump's Special Military Operation against Iran, which the Americans have undertaken in conjunction with Israel.
What is clear thus far, is that the comically named Operation EPIC FURY is not going to be the whirlwind success that President Trump initially promised to deliver.
What remains unclear is what exactly Trump's Operation EPIC FURY ultimately hopes to achieve. The initial claim was that Trump felt the Iranians were not negotiating in good faith to obtain a new nuclear arms treaty with the US. Based on President Trump's 'feelings' Operation EPIC FURY was launched to eliminate the possibility of an Iranian first-strike nuclear attack on US bases in the Middle East.
It is firmly established that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard does not possess a delivery system capable of carrying a nuclear warhead to the distant continental US.
As for the Iranian nuclear program, just the previous summer Trump had claimed to have 'obliterated' that entire capability in the series of airstrikes dubbed Operation MIDNIGHT HAMMER.
US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told the media that this current US military intervention was not about 'regime change' before adding 'but the regime sure changed'. This was in reference to the day-one missile strikes which had killed Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Just days later Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali's son, was sworn in as the new Supreme Leader. Iran's initial military response was to launch a barrage of drones and missiles against Israel and the US allied Arab Gulf States within the limited range of their weaponry.
The US and Israeli military were using sophisticated Patriot missiles to intercept relatively crude Iranian drones.
However, as that proved to be largely futile, the Iranians switched tactics and they have threatened all international shipping in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
Nearly 20% of the global oil and gas supply transits this narrow waterway which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. As such the worldwide price of oil spiked and this resulted in exponentially higher prices at gas pumps across North America.
Now, if the US position on their intervention in Iran seems vaguely incoherent, the same can be said for Canada's reaction to the attacks. At first Prime Minister Mark Carney appeared to support Operation EPIC FURY, if only as an appeasement tactic in advance of the upcoming Canada-US-Mexico (CUSMA) Trade negotiations.
While paying lip service to morally supporting President Trump's campaign, Carney firmly rejected the notion of providing military support to the joint US-Israeli Operation EPIC FURY.
Canada's Chief of Defence Staff, General Jennie Carignan took a slightly bolder stand. At a recent defence conference in Ottawa, Gen. Carignan made headlines when she told reporters that "Canada could be called on to help defend Gulf states". In a room full of senior military brass and defence academics, the response from everyone within earshot should have been an incredulous gasp of 'with what?'
The Iranian retaliation attacks against the US allied Gulf states has been mostly drone strikes. The Canadian Armed Forces currently possess only one Very Low Level Air Defence System and it was only recently deployed operationally with Canada's forward based NATO battle group in Latvia.
We have absolutely zero ability to protect the Gulf states from Iranian drone strikes.
As for protecting oil tankers and merchant ships transiting the contested Strait of Hormuz, the Royal Canadian Navy would be unwise to deploy a warship into that 50 kilometre-wide waterway to deal with Iranian sea-skimming missiles and suicide fast boats.
The Canadian Army's woefully understrength combat units are facing a massive challenge to simply rotate trained troops through the now permanent commitment to NATO's northern flank as part of Operation REASSURANCE. To think that additional personnel could be deployed to the Middle East in sufficient numbers to deter potential Iranian aggression is nonsense.
So the good news is that Canada will not be engaging in another 'forever' war in the Middle East at the behest of the US President.
The bad news is that we simply couldn't participate even if the cause was truly just.
