By Scott Taylor
For the senior brass at the Royal Canadian Air Force there is no question whatsoever that they want the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning as the replacement for their aging fleet of CF-18 Hornet fighter planes.
They have wanted the F-35, and only the F-35, since this 5th generation stealth strike fighter was first on the drawing board in 1997.
In 2010 Stephen Harper's Conservative government announced a sole-source deal to purchase 65 F-35's for the RCAF at a cost of $9 billion for the aircraft and a total program cost of $16 billion. However, as the F-35 experienced technical teething trouble and the costs soared, the 'reset button' was pushed on the entire controversial procurement by Harper.
In 2015 the Trudeau Liberals were elected on a promise they would replace the old CF-18's with any aircraft but the F-35. The recalcitrant RCAF brass objected to this exclusion and ensured that the F-35 was included in a competitive process.
Naturally the RCAF brass picked the F-35 and only the F-35 as their replacement for the now even more aged CF-18 fleet.
In January 2023 the Trudeau Liberals signed a contract to purchase the first 16 of an eventual 88 F-35's. These first 16 aircraft are to cost $7 billion of an eventual projected cost of $29 billion to purchase all 88 F-35's on the order book.
However, before the RCAF brass could relax into their lounge chairs, US President Donald Trump got elected and immediately began imposing tariffs and threatening Canada's sovereignty.
In response Prime Minister Mark Carney issued the rally call for Canadians to get their 'Elbows up' as a display of defiance to Trump's threats. More practically, Carney stated that the US is no longer a trusted ally and that moving forward Canada should reduce our reliance on purchasing 75% of our defence technology from our southern neighbour.
Much to the dismay of the RCAF braintrust, it was pointed out that Canada has thus far only committed to purchasing 16 F-35's. Carney has ordered a complete review of all options that would allow Canada to seek an alternate replacement aircraft for the CF-18's. That review was promised to be complete by the end of 'summer'. Defence Minister David McGuinty also committed to publicly releasing the document.
However now as the November snow is falling, the review is still under wraps.
Predictably it has recommended buying the F-35 and only the F-35, according to news reports. However, it would seem that Carney may indeed be serious about getting his elbows up.
In recent days defence firm SAAB, with the full backing of the Swedish government, has launched a full court press to convince the Canadian public of the merits in purchasing their Gripen fighter jets instead of just F-35's. In the last CF-18 replacement competition, SAAB's Gripen finished a close second to the F-35 despite the RCAF already predetermining they wanted the F-35 and only the F-35.
There is no question that the 5th generation F-35 is more technologically advanced than the SAAB Gripen. However the Gripens are more cost effective to operate and have a far greater readiness rate than the F-35.
They also have different tactical strengths wherein the Gripen is primarily an interceptor and the F-35 is a stealth Strike aircraft.
One would think that 16 F-35's would be adequate to fulfil any sneak attack on a near peer adversary on day one of a conflict, especially as there is no fathomable scenario wherein Canada would initiate such a conflict on our own. A fleet of 72 Gripen interceptors in the role of defending Canada's airspace would also seem more than adequate.
More importantly SAAB has sweetened the pot by offering to assemble the Gripen here in Canada. This is estimated to create 6,000 high tech aviation jobs over the next four decades.
That sort of offer must be music to the ears of those Canadians who truly want to send a message of patriotic defiance to the Trump administration. We would be partnering with a European ally to build domestic defence capacity.
Simultaneously we would be following through on Carney's promise to wean ourselves off the current dependency on the US.
More importantly we would be hitting Trump in the cheque book to the tune of cancelling close to $22 billion worth of future F-35's.
As much as I would love to see this play out in SAAB's favour, I fear the RCAF brass will once again prevail and Canada will get the F-35, and only the F-35. At the very least one hopes that the substantive benefits offered by the SAAB ripen bid will force concessions from Lockheed Martin in terms of better industrial benefits resulting from the F-35 purchase.
