By Scott Taylor
Thanks to the re-election of US President Donald Trump, for the past year Canada's defence and security have been at the forefront of public discourse. From the ludicrous notion that Canada will become the 51st state to the very real whimsical imposing of trade tariffs, Trump has steadfastly maintained that Canada must make a massive increase to our defence budget or face his wrath. For his part, Prime Minister Mark Carney has tried to judo-flip the equation by agreeing to spend more in total, but less on US-made defence systems. In other words we'll beef up our defence budget but take those dollars anywhere but the US. Unfortunately for Carney, not only is that a difficult proposition in the short term, he also has resistance from within the ranks of the senior military leadership.
The RCAF are hell bent on buying the Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, and only the F-35 fighter jets. This is despite the fact that last Spring Carney ordered a full review of the remainder of that contract before proceeding. In December 2024 Canada agreed to buy a fleet of 88 F-35's at a project cost of $19 billion, but only contracted the purchase of 16 aircraft at a cost of $7 billion. Following Carney's orders for the RCAF to review the remainder of the order, Saab of Sweden have offered to build 72 Gripen fighter jets in Canada along with 6 GlobalEye surveillance aircraft. It is an attractive offer.
The Gripen came in a close second to the F-35 in the RCAF competition to replace the RCAF's aged fleet of Cf-18 Hornet fighters and is far cheaper to operate than the F-35. The GlobalEye is already based on a Bombardier Canadian built aircraft. The proposal estimates the creation of 12,600 jobs in Canada's aviation sector. While there is a lot of public support to scrap the rest of the F-35 and diversify Canada's defence expenditure to Sweden, the RCAF brass seem wedded to getting their coveted F-35's. Last week the CBC reported that a contract had been signed for the key components of an additional 14 F-35's. Talk about tipping your hand that Canada is not seriously thinking of pivoting to the Gripen. Someone at defence procurement should really read a book titled The Art of the Deal.
While not quite in the same league in terms of dollar value as the RCAF jets, the Canadian Army also has some hefty buying power in the form of several major acquisitions deemed in February 2023 to be Urgent Operational Requirements. At that juncture, the war in Ukraine was entering its second year and as remains the case to this day, the conflict had no signs of ending any time soon. The Canadian Battle Group in Latvia is the command element of a multi-national NATO Brigade aimed at deterring Russian aggression as part of operation REASSURANCE.
Canada had first sent 800 troops on a semi-permanent rotational basis into Latvia in 2017. However after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 things suddenly got real. What had been created as a notional trip-wire deterrent force was suddenly within shooting range of a hostile adversary. By 2023, the nature of the conflict in Ukraine had become clear: In that near-peer engagement the battlefield necessities were First-Person-View (FPV) drones, counter drone measures, self-propelled armoured artillery, sophisticated anti-armour missiles, low level air defence. Canada possessed none of the above in February 2023. So given that all of these capabilities were deemed 'Urgent Operational Requirements' three years ago, how much of that kit has been fielded in Latvia? Sadly there has been no contract issued to date for either FPV drones or drone counter measures. Testing has been conducted in Ottawa, but the boatloads of FPV drones that our troops needed yesterday remain on the 'to do' list.
Ditto for the acquisition of a fleet of self-propelled howitzers. There is a $5 billion Indirect Fires Modernization project on the books to buy up to 98, 155mm self-propelled howitzers along with new 120 mm mortar systems.
The Canadian Army scrapped their fleet of aged M-109 self propelled howitzers in 2005. We have not had that capacity since then. Canada did fast track the purchase of Spike anti-tank missiles from Rafael of Israel. Worth roughly $45 million (CDN) the Spike project included flying Canadian soldiers to Israel in July 2024,to train on the missile systems. However those test unveiled functionality issues with the missiles that have yet to be resolved. Army planners now hope to have these urgently required missiles in the hands of the Latvia based battle group by mid-2026. Canada had been completely devoid of any air defence systems since 2012. However the one bright spot in all of this procurement bungling is that in 2024 the Latvia based Canadian battle group received a Saab RBS-70 Very Short Range Air Defence System. It is hoped that by 2027, a full Counter Rocket Artillery and Mortar (C-RAM) system will be delivered and operational in Latvia utilizing the Saab Giraffe radar system.
Last October the US approved the sale of 26 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to the Canadian Army at a cost of $2.4 billion (CDN). The sad part about this acquisition is threefold. First of all, because of the backlog on Lockheed Martin's HIMARS international order book, Canada will not receive the first launcher until 2029. Secondly, as discovered by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the HIMARS is only effective at longer ranges if you have access to the US intelligence link. The final point is the missed opportunity to pivot away from making another major US purchase. Hanwha of South Korea makes the comparable K239 Chunmoo Modular Artillery system with a similar range and lethality to that of the HIMARS. The Hanwha K239 system was recently purchased by Norway and other NATO allies. No doubt Hanwha could also deliver them before 2029.
